Predicting
The Markets
A Professional Autobiography
Dr. Ed Yardeni
I started my career on Wall Street in 1978. Ever since then, I have been thinking and writing about the economy and financial markets as both an economist and an investment strategist. While I have a solid academic background to be a Wall Street prognosticator, I learned a great deal on the job. In this professional autobiography, I share my insights into predicting the trends and cycles in the domestic and global economies and financial markets—including stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.
Available now worldwide!
Buy the Kindle version worldwide
About Dr. Ed’s book
When Ben Bernanke was a Fed governor, he said, “A part of monetary policymaking for which my background left me imperfectly prepared is what central bankers call ‘current analysis’ … [which] … is not taught in graduate school, probably for good reason; it seems more amenable to on-the-job training…. It is, nevertheless, an intellectually challenging activity.” He added that a “prerequisite for any serious forecasting exercise” is to get an accurate read of the current economic situation, which requires “a deep knowledge of the data mixed with a goodly dose of economic theory and economic judgment.”
I agree. In my professional autobiography, I share the lessons learned and insights gathered during my career so far on Wall Street. I hope that it will provide a very solid education in current analysis for anyone interested in the economy and financial markets. There are more than 700 charts linked on the book’s Resources page, which provide clear visual support for the analyses in the book. All the appendices and references in the book are also on the Resources page, with links to the sources when available.
Who should read Dr. Ed’s book
My target audience is broad; If you are an individual investor, professional money manager, investment adviser, financial analyst, business executive, or small business owner, you will find much of interest in my book. Students of economics, finance, and business can apply the lessons I’ve learned to their own careers. Anyone studying for the CFA exam will find my book helpful as well. Academics should find value in my real-world analysis, which will stimulate a better understanding of economics and finance among their students.
More broadly, though, I’ve written this book for everyone. Economics professors teach their students majoring in the subject to be academics and policymakers who go on to formulate theories and make decisions that impact all of society. One of my aims with this book is to show how economics is vitally important to all of us, because we all are affected by the theories of professors and the decisions of policymakers. Everyone can benefit from a better understanding of the forces that shape our financial lives.
Excerpts from the book
Dr. Ed’s track record
My book is a professional autobiography. I’ve been fortunate that my career to date has spanned extraordinary secular bull markets in both stocks and bonds, which I mostly got right. Along the way, I predicted “hat-size bond yields” when they exceeded 10% in the early 1980s. I coined the phrase “Bond Vigilantes” to describe the power of the capital markets in keeping a lid on inflation. I popularized the “Fed’s Stock Valuation Model,” and expanded it into a model that is highlighted in the official CFA Level III study guide. In the early 1990s, I predicted “5, 5 by 1995,” i.e., 5% on the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond and 5000 on the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Then I forecasted “10000 by 2000.” These forecasts hit their marks.
I was among the first Wall Street prognosticators to see the bullish consequences of disinflation and globalization for stocks and bonds during the 1980s and 1990s. In 1993, I started writing about the “High-Tech Revolution in the US of @.” After China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, I foresaw the resulting commodity boom. I turned bearish on financial services stocks during June 2007, before the financial crisis hit with full force. Although I wasn’t bearish enough on the overall stock market back then, I correctly called the market’s bottom the week after it was hit in March 2009, remaining steadfastly bullish during the nine-year bull run through the start of 2018. In this book, I explain my reasoning for all these predictions.
Dr. Ed’s bio
Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategy and asset allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank’s US equities division in New York City. He was also the Chief Economist of CJ Lawrence, Prudential-Bache Securities, and EF Hutton. He taught at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C.
Dr. Ed earned his PhD in economics from Yale University in 1976, having completed his doctoral dissertation under Nobel Laureate James Tobin. Previously, he received a master’s degree in international relations from Yale. He completed his undergraduate studies magna cum laude at Cornell University.
Dr. Ed is frequently quoted in the financial press, including The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, The New York Times, and Barron’s. He was dubbed “Wall Street Seer” in a Barron’s cover story. He appears frequently on CNBC and Bloomberg Television. See Dr. Ed’s Media Center.
Dr. Ed’s other sites
Five-Star Reviews
Michael Krach
“Imagine that your favorite uncle is a legend on Wall Street and he agrees to sit down with you and share everything he has learned. That is pretty much what this book does.”
James Codrington
“Dr. Yardeni manages to cut through jargon to deliver a clear introduction to economic forecasting within a highly readable account of his years on Wall Street.”
William Greiner
“This book can be read and understood by those with a thirst for the details of higher-quality analysis but also by investors who wish to gain historical insights from one of the longer-standing, first-rate Wall Street pros.”
Alan Blake
“A clear, concise look back at decades of financial history and forecasting, Yardeni’s book should prove invaluable to readers from the Wall Street sophisticate to the newest of investors.”
Naomi T. Dalessandro
“Great market insights from one of the most respected investment strategists of our time.”
Tad DeMarco
“…a must-read that should be on the reference shelf of every serious investor.”
Dec Mullarkey
“…an engaging and sophisticated tour of what drives markets”
J. Sherman
“The key to Dr. Yardeni’s long and successful Wall Street career is his ability to discuss complex topics in language easily understood by novices while still being informative to career investors.”
Burkhard Varnholt
“It’s in a class of its own—clever, witty, humble, superbly written, and full of captivating accounts. You will have finished the book much sooner than you hoped!”
Owen Williams
“This book is a must-buy destined to find its way into both national media conversations and the classroom.”
Dr. S.P. Greiner
“Dr. Yardeni paints a picture that only he can, writing like he’s talking to a friend. I highly recommend this lively, autobiographical economic history lesson.”