Resources
Chapter Charts, Endnotes, and Appendices
1: Predicting the Past
Appendices
Appendix 1.1 – “That M&A Tax Scare Rattling the Markets” (WSJ, 1987)
Appendix 1.2 – “Who’s the Bull Here?” (Washington Post, 1995)
Appendix 1.3 – “Wall Street Seer” (Barron’s, 1997)
2: Predicting the World
Appendices
Appendix 2.1 – The Protests of Economists Against the Hawley-Smoot Tariff
Appendix 2.2 – World Economic Outlook: 1998-Present
3: Predicting Technology
Appendices
Appendix 3.1 – US Adoption Rates of New Technologies, 1900-2014
4: Predicting Inflation
Appendices
Appendix 4.1 – Alternative Measures of Wages & Labor Cost
Appendix 4.2 – Alternative Measures of Prices
5: Predicting Business Cycles
Appendices
Appendix 5.1 – US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions: 1854-Present
Appendix 5.2 – US Business Cycle Peaks and Troughs: Announcement Dates
Appendix 5.3 – Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
6: Predicting Consumers
Appendices
Appendix 6.1 – Alternative Measures of Employment
Appendix 6.2 – Personal Income and Its Disposition
7: Predicting Demography
Appendices
Appendix 7.1 – US Demographic Cohorts
8: Predicting Real Estate
Appendices
Appendix 8.1 – Hollywood’s S&L Cautionary Tale: It’s a Wonderful Life
Appendix 8.2 – Credit Derivatives: Basic Definitions
Appendix 8.3 – Bernanke’s Fed and the Lehman Bankruptcy
9: Predicting the Fed
Appendices
Appendix 9.1 – Annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Themes: 1978-Present
Appendix 9.2 – Chairs of the Federal Reserve, a Chronology
Appendix 9.3 – Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers, a Chronology
Appendix 9.4 – Yellen’s Comments on Fed Purchasing Corporate Bonds and Stocks
10: Predicting Bonds
Appendices
Appendix 10.1 – Financial Accounts of the United States, Instruments (FRB)
Appendix 10.2 – Financial Accounts of the United States, Sectors (FRB)
11: Predicting Commodities
Appendices
Appendix 11.1 – CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index Basic Facts
12: Predicting Currencies
Appendices
Appendix 12.1 – US International Transactions
13: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Appendices
Appendix 13.1 – Summary Corporate Income Statement
Appendix 13.2 – Deriving 12-Month Forward Earnings
Appendix 13.3 – Corporate Profits
14: Predicting Valuation
Appendices
Appendix 14.1 – Greenspan’s Fed on Stock Market Valuation
15: Predicting Stocks
Appendices
Appendix 15.1 – Major US Stock Market Indexes
Appendix 15.2 – Dow Jones Averages Overview
Appendix 15.3 – S&P 500 Bull Markets Since 1928
Appendix 15.4 – S&P 500 Bear Markets and Corrections Since 1928
16: Predicting the Future
Appendices
Appendix 16.1 – Technological Innovations: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow