1. Edward Yardeni, Fed Watching for Fun and Profit (2020).

2. Fed Watching, p. 207. I also observed: “In any event, her comment is reminiscent of other ill-fated predictions by Fed chairs—like Greenspan’s ‘once-in-a-century’ technology and productivity revolution and Bernanke’s no ‘significant spillovers’ stance on the subprime mortgage debacle.”

3. Liz McCormick, “Jerome Powell Says the Concept of MMT Is ‘Just Wrong’,” Bloomberg, February 26, 2019.

Chapter 1

4. Since the December 16, 2020 meeting of the FOMC, the Fed started releasing the SEP at the same time as the FOMC statement. Included in the SEP are two new exhibits that show how the balance of participants’ assessments of uncertainty and risks have evolved over time. Previously, the SEP was made available to the public as an addendum to the Minutes that are released three weeks after each meeting.

5. “Nothing to Fear But Nothing to Fear (and Iran),” Morning Briefing, January 6, 2020.

6. Ben Bernanke, “The new tools of monetary policy,” January 4, 2020 speech.

7. See the video here, or at www.yardenibook.com/studies.

8. “Summers Calls Bernanke Speech ‘Last Hurrah’ for Central Bankers,” Bloomberg, January 9, 2020.

9. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 10–11, 2019.

10. Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference, December 11, 2019.

11. “Happy Chinese New Year,” Morning Briefing, January 22, 2020.

12. “Going Viral,” Morning Briefing, January 27, 2020.

13. “CDC expects ‘community spread’ of coronavirus, as top official warns disruptions could be ‘severe’,” STAT, February 25, 2020.

14. “Where Is Everybody?” The Twilight Zone, October 5, 1959 video episode.

15. “Government Measures to Stop Covid-19 Triggering Pandemic of Fear,” Morning Briefing, February 26, 2020.

16. “Pandemic Pandemonium,” Morning Briefing, March 10, 2020.

17. “The Best Cure for a Viral Pandemic Is a Viral Panic,” Morning Briefing, March 16, 2020.

Chapter 2

18. “In a Good Place?” Morning Briefing, February 19, 2020.

19. Monetary Policy Report, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 7, 2020.

20. Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, February 11, 2020.

21. Transcript of Chairman Powell’s Press Conference, September 26, 2018.

22. Transcript of Chairman Powell’s Press Conference, January 30, 2019.

23. Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference, March 20, 2019.

24. Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference, January 29, 2020.

25. Jeff Cox, “Fed Vice Chair Clarida throws cold water on traders pricing in a rate cut,” CNBC, February 20, 2020.

26. “Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell,” Press Release, February 28, 2020.

27. “COVID-19: The Plot Sickens,” Morning Briefing, March 2, 2020.

28. FOMC Statement, March 3, 2020.

29. “Fed’s Rosengren: Fed Needs to Broaden Assets It Can Buy,” The Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2020.

30. “Fear for All,” Morning Briefing, March 12, 2020.

31. Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 15, 2020.

32. See our Chronology of Fed’s Quantitative Easing & Tightening at www.yardeni.com/chronology-of-feds-quantitative-easing/.

33. FOMC Statement, March 15, 2020.

34. Coordinated Central Bank Action to Enhance the Provision of U.S. Dollar Liquidity, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 15, 2020.

35. “False coronavirus rumors surge in ‘hidden viral’ text messages,” NBC News, March 16, 2020.

36. “Declaration of War,” Morning Briefing, March 17. 2020.

37. Federal Reserve Board announces establishment of a Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to support the credit needs of households and businesses, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, March 17, 2020.

38. Federal Reserve Board announces establishment of a Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) to support the flow of credit to households and businesses, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, March 17, 2020.

39. Federal Reserve Board broadens program of support for the flow of credit to households and businesses by establishing a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, March 18, 2020.

40. Federal Reserve Board expands its program of support for flow of credit to the economy by taking steps to enhance liquidity and functioning of crucial state and municipal money markets, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, March 20, 2020.

41. “Declaration of War,” Morning Briefing, March 17, 2020.

42. “Searching for Silver Bullets,” Morning Briefing, March 25, 2020.

43. Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, March 23, 2020.

44. “Federal Reserve Considering Additional Support for State, Local Government Finance,” The Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2020.

45. Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, April 9, 2020.

46. Federal Reserve Board announces an extension through December 31 of its lending facilities that were scheduled to expire on or around September 30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, July 28, 2020.

47. Federal Reserve Board announces extension through March 31, 2021, for several of its lending facilities that were generally scheduled to expire on or around December 31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, November 30, 2020.

48. FOMC Statement, December 16, 2020.

49. See our handy archive of FOMC Statements 1997-Present.

50. “Fed Chair Jay Powell: U.S. may be in a different era for workers’ wages despite economic gains,” PBS Newshour (pbs.org), October 3, 2018. Quoted remark is 11 minutes, 17 seconds into the videotape of the interview.

51. Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference, March 3, 2020.

52. “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Call,” March 15, 2020.

53. “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference,” April 29, 2020.

54. “Full Transcript: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s 60 Minutes Interview on Economic Recovery From the Coronavirus Pandemic,” May 17, 2020.

55. “Powell Says Fed Crossed Red Lines When Virus Demanded Action,” Bloomberg, May 29, 2020.

56. “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference,” June 10, 2020.

57. “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference,” July 29, 2020.

58. “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference,” September 16, 2020.

59. Jerome Powell, “Recent Economic Developments and the Challenges Ahead,” October 6, 2020 speech at the National Association for Business Economics Virtual Annual Meeting.

60. “The Fiscal Federal Reserve: Powell signs up to monetize trillions of dollars in more spending,” The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2020.

61. “Preliminary Estimate of the Effects of H.R. 748, the CARES Act,” Congressional Budget Office, April 27, 2020.

62. “Don’t Fight T-Fed,” Morning Briefing, October 12, 2020.

63. Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference, June 10, 2020.

64. Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference, July 29, 2020.

65. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 9–10, 2020.

Chapter 3

 66. “ECB ready to take ‘appropriate and targeted measures’ on coronavirus,” Financial Times, March 2, 2020.

67. ECB, Monetary policy decisions, March 12, 2020.

68. ECB announces easing of conditions for targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III), ECB Press Release, March 12, 2020.

69. Press Conference, ECB, 12 March 2020.

70. ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), ECB Press Release, March 18, 2020.

71. ECB, Monetary policy decisions, June 4, 2020.

72. ECB announces new pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations, April 30, 2020.

73. ECB, Monetary policy decisions, December 10, 2020. ECB extends pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations, Press Release, December 10, 2020.

74. Christine Lagarde, “Europe’s response to the crisis,” ECB Blog Post, July 23, 2020.

75. “Economic and monetary developments,” ECB Economic Bulletin, September 24, 2020.

76. “Lagarde Is Prepared to Add Stimulus, Cut Rates to Support European Recovery,” The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2020.

77. Enhancement of Monetary Easing in Light of the Impact of the Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), Bank of Japan, March 16, 2020.

78. “Japan Unveils Record $992 Billion Stimulus Amid Virus Emergency,” Bloomberg, April 7, 2020.

79. Enhancement of Monetary Easing, Bank of Japan, April 27, 2020.

80. Japan approves fresh $1.1 trillion stimulus to combat pandemic pain, Reuters, May 26, 2020.

81. “To fight pandemic, Japan keeps fiscal tap wide open on budget spending requests,” The Japan Times, July 21, 2020.

Chapter 4

82. CBO’s Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021, April 24.

83. “Awakenings,” Morning Briefing, May 18, 2020.

84. “From Cabin Fever to Dopamine Rush,” Morning Briefing, May 21, 2020.

85. Sandy Cohan and Edward Yardeni, “Cabin Fever Sing Along,” April 27, 2020.

86. GAFO stands for general merchandise, apparel and accessories, furniture and furnishings, and other—representing retailers of department-store types of merchandise (e.g., furniture and home furnishings, electronics and appliances, clothing and accessories, sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book, general merchandise, office supply, stationery, and gift stores).

87. “How are the economic impact payments for individuals authorized by the CARES Act of 2020 recorded in the NIPAs?” Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 28, 2020 (modified 2/9/21).

88. “Moderna Announces Positive Interim Phase 1 Data for its mRNA Vaccine (mRNA-1273) Against Novel Coronavirus,” Press Release, May 18, 2020.

Chapter 5

89. Jerome Powell, “New Economic Challenges and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Review,” August 27, 2020 speech at “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy,” an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming (via webcast).

90. “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement of longer-run goals and policy strategy,” Press Release, January 25, 2012.

91. “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,” Adopted effective January 24, 2012; as amended effective August 27, 2020.

92. “Guide to changes in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 27, 2020.

93. Lael Brainard, “Bringing the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy into Alignment with Longer-Run Changes in the Economy,” September 1, 2020 speech at “How the Fed Will Respond to the COVID-19 Recession in an Era of Low Rates and Low Inflation,” an event hosted by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast).

94. “Timelines of Policy Actions and Communications: Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,” February 22, 2019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

95. Edward Yardeni, “Four Deflationary Forces Keeping a Lid on Inflation,” Excerpt from Fed Watching for Fun & Profit (2020).

96. Janet Yellen, “Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis,” October 14, 2016 speech at “The Elusive ‘Great’ Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics” 60th annual economic conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Massachusetts.

Chapter 6

 97. See the transcript of Martin’s “Address before the New York Group of the Investment Bankers Association of America,” October 19, 1955.

98. Aaron Steelman. “Employment Act of 1946,” Federal Reserve History webpage.

99. Financial Stability Report, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November 2018.

100. Financial Stability Report, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 2019.

101. Financial Stability Report, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November 2019.

102. Global Financial Stability Report, International Monetary Fund, October 2019.

103. “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference,” October 30, 2019.

104. Financial Stability Report, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 2020.

105. Financial Stability Report, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November 2020.

106. “Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test 2020: Supervisory Stress Test Results,” Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 2020. Federal Reserve Board releases results of stress tests for 2020 and additional sensitivity analyses conducted in light of the coronavirus event, Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, June 25, 2020.

107. Statement by Governor Brainard, Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, June 25, 2020.

108. Federal Reserve Board announces it will extend for an additional quarter several measures to ensure that large banks maintain a high level of capital resilience, Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, September 30, 2020.

109. December 2020 Stress Test Results, Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

110. Federal Reserve Board releases second round of bank stress test results, Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, December 18, 2020.

111. Executive Order 12631 — Working Group on Financial Markets, Ronald Reagan Presidential Library & Museum.

112. “Plunge Protection Team,” The Washington Post, February 23, 1997.

113. “The Three Marketeers,” Time, February 15, 1999.

114. Global Financial Stability Report, International Monetary Fund, October 2020.

115. Nick Timiraos, “Mnuchin, Powell Pledge Additional Relief to Prevent Lasting Damage to Economy,” The Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2020.

116. “Periodic Report: Update on Outstanding Lending Facilities Authorized by the Board under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act December 10, 2020,” Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

117. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, November 19, 2020.

118. Parinitha Sastry, “The Political Origins of Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act,” FRBNY Economic Policy Review, September 2018.

119. Jeanna Smialek, “What Is 13-3? Why a Debate Over the Fed Is Holding Up Stimulus Talks,” The New York Times, December 18, 2020.

120. The Fed extended these four facilities through March 31, 2021. Federal Reserve Board announces extension through March 31, 2021, for several of its lending facilities that were generally scheduled to expire on or around December 31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Press Release, November 30, 2020.

121. Letter from Chair Powell to Secretary Mnuchin regarding emergency lending facilities, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November 20, 2020.

122. “Pandemic increases risks to financial stability,” ECB Press Release, Financial Stability Report, ECB, May 2020.

123. Financial Stability Report, Federal Reserve Board of the Federal Reserve System, November 2020.

124. Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference, December 16, 2020.

125. Alan Greenspan, “The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society,” December 5, 1996 speech at the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C.

126. For a thorough explanation of forward revenues, forward earnings, forward P/Es, and the Buffett Ratio see Edward Yardeni and Joseph Abbott, S&P 500 Earnings, Valuation, and the Pandemic, 2020.

127. Jerome Powell, “Thoughts on Unconventional Monetary Policy,” June 27, 2013 speech at the Bipartisan Policy Center, Washington, D.C.

Chapter 7

128. Stephanie Kelton, The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy (New York: PublicAffairs, 2020), page 13.

129. Kelton, page 17.

130. Kelton, page 63.

131. Kelton, page 96.

132. Kelton, page 134.

133. Kelton, page 22.

134. Kelton, page 38.

135. Kelton, page 237.

136. Kelton, pages 33-34.

137. Kelton, page 56.

138. Kelton, page 65.

139. Kelton, page 249.

 140. “A Conversation with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell,” Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University, January 14, 2021. See the video at https://bcf.princeton.edu/news/a-conversation-with-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell/.

141. “Biden Proposes $1.9 Trillion Covid-19 Relief Package,” Richard Rubin and Eliza Collins, The Wall Street Journal, January 14, 2021.

142. “Fed’s Rosengren voices support for Biden stimulus proposal,” Jeff Cox, CNBC.com, January 15, 2021.

143. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Press Release, December 16, 2020.